There are many speculations about what the Mueller Report might include when it’s released. It is very possible that it incriminates President Trump which could lead to impeachment; however, there is the likely possibility that most of the damning information has already been gradually and purposefully released throughout the investigation. First, before we get into those details and how it will affect the President and what the Republican Party might do if the President is impeached, we first must understand what the Mueller Report actually is.
The Mueller Report is an investigation into President Trump’s conduct and the report will particularly focus on Trump’s actions that could constitute obstruction of justice. Now, will this report be made accessible to the public? Maybe. If it does contain particularly damning evidence of Trump’s actions, there is a very likely chance that congressional Republicans will do everything in their power to keep it under wraps. It has always seemed unlikely that Trump will be indicted on the obstruction of justice charges particularly because there is debate over whether the president could even be held liable for such actions due to the executive branch’s constitutional authority. The better question to ask, according to the Washington Post is, “how serious his misconduct was.” That being said, we know for a fact that the report is supposed to be presented to the Attorney General, but because Jeff Sessions originally recused himself and then consequently resigned, the report will either go to the new appointee, William Barr, or acting Attorney General, Matt Whitaker. The Attorney General is supposed to provide the chairperson and ranking members of relevant House and Senate committees with an explanation of the conclusion of the investigation. The Attorney General’s explanation might be released should he decide it to be “in the public interest.” There will definitely be a Mueller Report and there will definitely be an explanation by the Attorney General, so the real question is how much of the findings from the investigation will be released? Will Trump be impeached? And if he is, will he be convicted? How might this affect the 2020 elections for Republicans?
Many are speculating that the Mueller Report will be anti-climactic. According to the panel we listened to today, there is a possibility that we have already gotten most of the Mueller Report through certain key pieces that have been intentionally released throughout the investigation. If this is the case, there is a great possibility that President Trump will not be impeached and will not be convicted and may be reelected come the 2020 elections. However, if the Mueller Report goes in the opposite direction and drops a slew of newly damning evidence, there are two ways it could play out. The first being that he could be impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate. This direction is pretty cut and dried — if he is convicted he would be removed from office and is unlikely to pursue a second term. On the other hand, if Trump is impeached and not convicted, we might see a repeat of the Bill Clinton scandal in which Clinton gained the sympathy of voters (Clinton’s approval ratings jumped to 73%) and won reelection, which could suggest that President Trump could similarly be reelected in 2020. If he is impeached, the Republican party would be faced with an important choice. Party leaders will obviously seek a different nominee, but I predict that the chances of a Republican winning in 2020 will drastically decrease. At that point I think we can turn to the Lara Brown lecture we attended and can expect to see a female Democrat win due to the stereotype that women are viewed as more moral than men, just as 2018 saw a large number of new women elected to Congress.